Moline, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXUS63 KDVN 060923
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
423 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally seasonal temperatures before warming up by mid-week next
  week

- Periodic chances of showers, with the highest potential (30 to
  60%) on Saturday and Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The end of the work week looks to end on an overall dry, but
mostly cloudy, note as we continue to stay under a semi-zonal
west-southwest flow aloft. A few mid-level shortwave impulses
nearby continue to translate eastward early this morning, ahead
of a parent longer wave trough that has loitered over the
Intermountain West region since yesterday. There is quite a bit
of dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, especially
below the 800 mb level, so although we will continue to see
clouds today, it`s going to be slim-pickings for measurable
rainfall and probably will see more virga than anything. This
agrees with the 06.00z HREF PMM QPF fields through tonight,
which shows only isolated spots (over our far northwestern area)
seeing any measurable precipitation of a hundredth of an inch or
more.

Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs today in the
upper 70s, with lows tonight in the middle to upper 50s. Winds will
remain light and variable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The highest chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
come on Saturday and Sunday, as the aforementioned mid-level trough
from the Short Term discussion approaches the region. A deepening
longwave trough and PVA maxima is progged to develop in the wake of
the leading shortwave, which will keep active conditions in place
through the weekend. Chances of precipitation look to be highest
Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon during peak heating of the
day. Saturday`s showers and storms aren`t expected to become
strong or severe, given a lack of robust shear and instability.
Sunday`s activity has a higher potential to become strong, with
deep-layer shear around 40 to 50 knots and MLCAPE values around
1000 J/kg across our south. This appears sufficient for SPC to
place our southeastern areas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
of severe weather, mainly for areas along and south of a line
from Memphis, MO to Tampico, IL. Rainfall isn`t expected to be
anything too heavy, with the NBM exceedance probabilities of a
quarter inch of rainfall for Sunday around 30 to 50 percent.

For Monday and Tuesday, we`ll see slightly cooler than normal
temperatures, and periodic bouts of clouds and shower chances, as an
upper low settles over the Great Lakes and waves rotate down around
it.

Beyond, the pattern looks to turn warmer mid to late next week with
some amplification of an upper ridge across the region. There is
quite a bit of differences on the magnitude of the ridge, and so
confidence is low with the extent of the warmup. In addition, if the
ridge is weaker then there is the potential for some energy to break
through the ridge and shift eastward leading to some shower and
storm chances. Something to monitor in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period, with
passing mid to high clouds through the night. Winds will remain
light (5 kts or less) and largely out of the east, although
variable winds have been noted at times.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz/McClure
AVIATION...Schultz